Canada’s environment commissioner stated Tuesday that the country may not be capable of reaching its 2030 emission reductions targets. This is because the federal government’s current plan relies on “unrealistic” assumptions regarding the role hydrogen will play within the energy mix in years to come.
Today, Jerry DeMarco, the commissioner, released a series audits that documented the federal government’s environmental shortcomings. These include its failure to create a meaningful “just Transition” plan for energy workers who are being displaced by the transition into a low-carbon economy, and the uneven application a supposedly national carbon emission price.
DeMarco’s harshest criticism was of the government’s hydrogen strategy. It is based upon “overly optimistic” assumptions, he stated, that compromises the credibility of the entire government’s emissions reduction plan.
DeMarco spoke at a press conference and stated that the government’s questionable hydrogen emission targets “raise concerns about how they approach climate modelling and emissions reductions generally.”
He said that Canada should be more open and transparent about its assumptions for hydrogen’s role. They must be realistic.
Canada’s emissions are expected to fall by 40% to 45 Percent from 2005 levels by 2030. The federal government has committed to reducing Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% to 45 Percent by 2030. It is counting on widespread hydrogen deployment, a carbon-free energy source that emits no greenhouse gases when it is burned, to help achieve this ambitious goal.
The impact of hydrogen on the environment is not agreed upon by all departments
Two federal departments Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada said that hydrogen rapid adoption would result in significant emission reductions, as it can replace high carbon fuels. However, the commissioner found that these two federal departments could not agree on the amount to be offset by hydrogen use.
Environment and Climate Change Canada stated that clean hydrogen technologies could reduce emissions by up to 15 megatonnes per year by 2030. Natural Resources Canada, however, estimates a contribution of as high as 45 megatonnes.
The commissioner said that both departments are likely off-base because they used unrealistic assumptions to model hydrogen’s potential.
Natural Resources Canada anticipates an “ambitious technological uptake” within the next eight year, an assumption that the commissioner said is not necessarily grounded in reality.
WATCH:Canada’s environment commissioner discusses government’s hydrogen modelling
Jerry DeMarco claims that the government’s estimate for the impact of hydrogen use on emissions targets is “raise.”[s]Concerns about their overall approach towards climate modelling and emissions reductions in the general. 0:57
He stated that although the government wants hydrogen use to significantly reduce emissions, there is no way to do this.
High-cost hydrogen
The commissioner stated that so-called “green hydrogen”, a form of fuel produced by electrolysis with no resulting emissions, may not be widely used by the end of this decade because it is prohibitively expensive.
A gigajoule (or gigajoule) of natural gas is estimated to cost $3.79 per ounce. Green hydrogen, which is produced using electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar, can be purchased for over $60.
This huge price disparity makes it difficult for the industry to produce green hydrogen.
The commissioner cited government data and stated that Canada’s annual production of hydrogen is only around 3 megatonnes. Most of this hydrogen is “grey”, which is a dirtier type that produces nearly twice the amount of greenhouse gases as natural gas.
The commissioner said that there are questions about whether hydrogen can play a meaningful role in Canada in Canada’s short-term because of the lack of infrastructure such as hydrogen pipelines or liquefaction plants.
‘Aspirational numbers’
DeMarco also stated there wasn’t enough carbon capture utilization and storage technology (CCUS) to produce “blue”. Blue hydrogen is a formoffuel that is derived primarily from natural gas by steam methane Reforming.
Natural Resources Canada has publicly stated that hydrogen adoption could account up to 15% of the emissions reductions required to meet the 2030 target. However, the commissioner said that the department’s internal numbers, which are based on “incremental demands reports,” suggest that hydrogen will only contribute 0.5% to the 2030 target.
The commissioner stated that the department did not find lower emissions reduction targets “compelling” so it used “more aspirational” numbers when preparing its emissions modeling plan.
“We believe that this plan is not transparent because it contains assumptions that aren’t clear and relies heavily on policies that aren’t announced or in effect,” said the commissioner.
He stated that Canada’s emissions reduction targets will be hampered if the government “disproportionately projects hydrogen’s impact on emissions.”
Ottawa is criticized by the Commissioner for not having a ‘just transition’ plan
DeMarco stated that government has done little in preparation for an expected wave in layoffs in energy sectors as the country moves away from fossil fuels such as oil and coal over the next few years.
DeMarco said that the government had promised for years to produce a “just-transition” plan to help workers affected by income and pension support. He claimed that the government is “slow to the mark,” has taken little action, and is woefully unprepared for possible mass unemployment.
He stated that the government’s recent approach in dealing with job losses in the coal sector Ottawa is overseeing a complete phase-outofcoal-fired electricity by 2030 leaves much to be desired.
DeMarco stated that the federal government relied heavily on the existing Employment Insurance (EI) program, rather than developing a plan to address specific needs of coal workers laid off. DeMarco stated that it needs to adopt a different approach to other sectors that are highly dependent on emissions and will likely see job losses.
DeMarco stated that the country could experience something similar as the Newfoundland-Labrador cod moratorium, which resulted in thousands losing their jobs and the hollowing out of rural areas.
Canada has an estimated 170,000 direct jobs from fossil fuels. There needs to be legislation and a plan to “support the future and livelihood of workers, communities, and communities affected by the transition to low-carbon economies,” he stated.
“The current pace for planning for a just and peaceful transition will make addressing the upcoming shifts on the labour market difficult.”
The Commissioner raises concerns about industrial emitters
DeMarco stated in a separate report that Ottawa has not done enough for its carbon pricing regime to be fair on the country’s industrial emitters.
He said that the current carbon pricing system may have created a situation where consumers are paying more carbon taxes than large businesses. However, it’s difficult to know for sure because there isn’t much transparency about the amount of carbon tax collected by the provinces as part of the “output-based pricing” (OBPS).
The federal carbon pricing regime includes TheOBPS. This price is separate from the cost consumers pay when they purchase fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and diesel.
The commissioner stated that there is a patchwork OBPS policies in the country. Some provinces have implemented weak or non-existent systems that have allowed many big polluters to get away with their dirty work.
He suggested that the federal government must insist upon minimum national standards to ensure the provinces with their OBPS policies, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador as well as New Brunswick and Ontario, collect enough taxes from these emitters. DeMarco stated that the cost to industries varies greatly between provinces.
The commissioners stated that the current weakness in theindustrial system is undermining “polluter pays”, which is the principle of carbon pricing.
WATCH:Environment minister reacts the report of the environment commissioner
Stephen Guilbeault is Environment Minister and says he appreciates the report’s findings. 0:25
Jonathan Wilkinson, Natural Resources Minister and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said that they were pleased with the report of the commissioner and are committed to implementing a carbon pricing system that is “fair” and “effective.”
“We have strengthened national standards for carbon pricing, which all systems will need from 2023 to 2030, and are now working with the provinces and territories to implement them. Ministers stated that a price on pollution will not only keep our air clean but also help families save money.
Concerned by the concerns expressed by the commissioner about the questionable modelling of hydrogen-related emissions reduction, ministers stated that the government would “develop a standard framework” on how certain measures, like the adoption and use of hydrogen, can contribute to reducing Canada’s emissions.