According to Kantar data published by AHDB, retail sales of meat, poultry, and fish reached 1.9bn for the four weeks ending 26/12/2021. 98% households bought these products during this time.
While total value and volume sales were down for turkey, share was lower than for all other proteins. However, red meat roasting joints spend increased by 2.2% annually. The only roasting cut that saw year-on-year growth was lamb, with both pork roasting joint sales and beef roasting joint revenues declining year over year.
The majority of beef cuts still outperformed 2019 however, including burgers and ready meals. Inflation-hit consumers can expect a trend to trade down in 2022.
The same picture is shown by Nielsen data for Scotland. While fresh red meat sales did not reach the heights of 2020 in 52 weeks, 2022 figures show that they were up 8.8% in value and 2.5% volume compared to 2019.
Antoine Legendre is the category manager at Quality Meat Scotland. This is mainly driven by sausages (+19.7% value) and fresh meat (+6.1% value), but all protein are on the rise. The versatility of red meat has helped to increase retail sales.
Shoppers moved from bulk buying mince in the initial lockdown to more expensive cuts such as steaks to recreate the restaurant experience at their home. Kantar data showed that premium brand and premium private-label meats saw 8.1% growth from October 3rd 2021 to October 3rd 2021.
Sustainability
The pandemic in Glasgow and COP26 in Glasgow are reviving consumer interest in local provenance and local shopping. This is changing the narrative about meat and sustainability.
According to IGD, red beef is among the top three categories in which it is important to support local businesses by buying locally. says Legendre. Younger shoppers were attracted to butcher shops by the pandemic. Arguments for local diets being healthier for the environment will continue expanding.
Kantar and The Knowledge Bank conducted research in December 2021 that suggests eco-active shoppers could account for 62% of Scotland’s population by 2030.
Stuart Ashworth, chief economist at QMS, says: Initiatives like the Global Meat Alliance or the Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef are fostering international collaboration. These are just a few examples of how cooperation at an early stage in the supply chain can help secure a market for meat.
Justin Sherrard is the global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank in the Netherlands. He says that the meat industry should see sustainability as an opportunity and not a threat.
Everyone wants to show that they are reducing their environmental impact. Because we eat a lot of animal protein, it is easier to show that you have reduced your impact than in other parts.Sherrard.
Individual companies are making great strides by setting ambitious goals and pursuing them, whether it’s in the marketing of a carbon-neutral product, high animal welfare standards, or products that are produced without antibiotics.
Sustainability initiatives have seen a shift from being a niche project for those who are deeply committed, to more mainstream offerings. It’s about helping consumers make the right choice and feel better about what they eat.
Elemental, an agrifood tech company, announced earlier this month its first licensing agreement for Dawn Meats and Dunbia. Innovative technology for fat recovery and protein productionExpected to harvest 15% more human-edible food products from every carcass they process.
Niall Browne is the CEO of Dawn Meats and Dunbia. We are always looking for ways to improve the efficiency and sustainability our operations. This new technology will enable us to reach our ambitious 58% reduction in absolute Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
After a backlash from negative publicity, Sherrard says that messaging from the plant-based sector has changed from its initial headline-grabbing were going save the world approach.
Plant-based brands are no longer allowed to say eat me, he says. People are beginning to understand that the beef they eat in Europe and the UK is actually a fraction of the sustainability footprint of global averages.
He says that projections that the plant-based category would capture 10% to 15% of animal protein sales within a few decades were unrealistic. Despite continuing to grow, plant-based sales are currently outperforming meat sales.
Health & NPD
As sustainability can be made into a business opportunity for the meat sector it can also be used to spur interest in health and nutrition.
Ashworth points out the opportunity to reposition beef with consumers by innovative marketing, product development, and addressing the concerns that consumers have about eating healthy, balanced meals from sustainable food sources.
Kieran Bansi is the head of category management for Jack Link’s and Peperami. Consumers are now looking for meat snacks with high protein, lower sugar and fewer calories. The category continues to grow and has become a key benefit.
While today’s majority of protein consumption occurs as a main meal, over 70% of Americans snack at least once daily. This allows for meat snacking to grow in popularity.
Bansi states that the Jack Links range, which includes beef jerky, beef biltong, and protein beef bars lines is driving category growth among consumers who are looking for taste and health. Its lean beef high in protein and low-calorie content is driving this category growth.
Bansi says that the total meat snacking market has increased by more than 85% over the past five years. This is due to NPD like Peperamis’ latest launch, a premium Chorizo five pack targeted at lunchtime snacking and afternoon snacking opportunities, especially among young adults.
There are many challenges, but there is a lot of them.Justin Sherrard, Rabobank’s global strategist for animal protein, says that inflation is a result of input costs ranging from animal feed and agri commodity to freight, labour, and energy.
We are seeing a squeeze on margins in all food except for animal protein. It is such a labour-intensive operation that you can feel that extra cost very acutely.
Moy Park’s high energy costs and shortage of labour prompted it to temporarily stop live bird processing at one of its Northern Ireland locations in January. Manufacturing NI demanded that the Government address the energy crisis and provide labour solutions before other firms do.
Martin Morgan, executive vice-president of the Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers states: There is every indication that there will be a labour shortage in 2022 due to the stubborn and dogmatic approach of the UK Government to immigration.
Balance of supply & trade
The AHDB has released the latest forecasts for a 12% increase in sheep meat production in 2022. This is in contrast to low cull numbers in 2021, after many lambs were moved forward in 2020 in anticipation of Brexit. While lamb consumption is expected to fall as inflation bites consumers, exports are expected to rise.
Beef production is expected to rise by 1% this fiscal year. There will be more Irish supply entering the UK market, but UK exports will increase by 15% to meet strong demand on the continent.
The 2022 decline in pig production and consumption is expected. The pressure on the pig sector is immense right now.“Chris Gooderham is the head of markets at AHDB.”
A Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs survey from December 2021 found a backlog around 170,000 pigs. This is directly related to the labour crisis and unlikely to be cleared until this summer.
Exports of pig meat are expected to rise by 9% in 2022. Prices will remain low until the EU’s supply/demand balance for pork is corrected. saysGooderham.The market has been somewhat destabilized by the decline in Chinese demand. However, lower US pig numbers and rising Chinese prices offer some hope for a recovery later in 2022.
Sherrard discusses the impact of animal disease in global meat trade. Sherrard points out that avian flu has pushed up poultry prices at a moment when other input costs have also been rising. But, African Swine Fever has lowered EU pig prices by increasing supply through restrictions on exports.
Post-Brexit Trade
It has been difficult to export after Brexit. Morgan says: Some Scottish businesses are finding it difficult to maintain supplies to EU customers who have been established for a long time due to complicated export rules and bureaucracy.
Glesni Phillips (data analyst at Hybu Cymru) also points out short-term issues arising from increased paperwork for EU exports as well as pandemic disruption, but also offers opportunities.
Prior to the pandemic in 2011, the number of exports from Wales to the Middle East for lamb was up by 400% in just two year. HCC is investing in the region to capitalize on this demand. After a decade of effort to increase restrictions on beef and lamb from the UK, the US market has opened up. This will provide opportunities for processors and farmers in Wales.
Sherrard states that Brexit has not affected trade flows between the UK EU and the UK much to date. However, the introduction of veterinary inspections on EU imports starting July 1 could have an impact.