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The UN’s latest report on climate change’s potential effects gives an overview. grim verdictSome effects are now considered unavoidable. There are lessons to be learned about disasters and violent conflicts that can help save lives and create safer communities, regardless of whether human-caused climate changes are occurring.
The main available text of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on “Vulnerability, adaptation, and impacts” is a 35-page Summary for Policy MakersMember state governments approve the IPCC-approved.
The member states appoint IPCC scientists. These contributing researchers don’t produce new science. They summarize the tens to thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers about climate change that have been published since the last assessment (the most recent major IPCC report on adaptation, impacts, and vulnerabilities). Published in 2014).
The scientists receive thousands of comments on drafts that need textual revisions and responses. In making a series of statements on our understanding of climate change, the report assigns confidence levels such as “low” or “very high” to indicate how certain the authors are of each one.
Ukrainian scientists have overshadowed the current report Not being able to attend the approval session to take care of themselves and their families during Russia’s invasion of their country. The document was drafted by around 90 scientists from all continents, with equal representation of men and women. Reports of the incident were published as it happens often. Pushes by political leaders to remove scientific contentbroken linkThis emphasizes the material’s political nature.
Climate change and disasters
As an academic who studies Disasters and healthI was particularly interested to see how the report viewed climate change as a cause for disasters, including violent conflict, and suggested ways to avoid them.
The IPCC’s summary entirely avoids the phrase “natural disaster”. This is reflected in Many decades of hard workThat is why it is important to explain Natural disasters can occur by sources of vulnerability – such as unequal and inequitable access to essential services like healthcare or poorly designed or built infrastructure like power plants – rather than by the climate or other environmental influences.
The report states, with high confidence, that “climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high vulnerability”. A crisis cannot emerge if there is not vulnerability. Climate change is not the cause of disaster. The report explains that places with “poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods” are more vulnerableClimate Change Impacts
fivepointsix / shutterstock
In Bangladesh, for example, cyclones can still cause disasters. The country has seen a significant reduction in deaths and damage due to concerted efforts. to reduce vulnerabilities. These include the construction and maintenance of thousands storm shelters. These measures have made cyclones more deadly than ever before. Get more intenseDue to climate change
According to the report, weather catastrophes that kill more people tends to happen in areas where infrastructure and communities are more vulnerable. Heat is rightly emphasized as This is a major concernIt can cause crops to fail and force people to stop work. It is still surprising that the Humidity can have adverse health effectsIt is important to mention that extreme heat can cause severe heat reactions, which can lead to death.
The report states that disaster risk can be reduced by addressing fundamental vulnerabilities, regardless of weather or climate. It places high trust in risk management, risk sharing and warning strategies as key tasks to adapt to climate change.
Climate change and violent conflict
The report, like other disasters, cannot attribute climate change to violent conflict. With high confidence, the report states that “compared to other socioeconomic factors the influence of climate on conflict is assessed as relatively weak”. This is consistent with other research that suggests conflict and peace are more determined by Political and social factorsRather than by weather or climate.
The authors identify, with high confidence, actions to reduce the “underlying vulnerabilities” which raise the risk of violent conflict. These can be Based on researchThis could include redistributing wealth and other resources to make societies more equitable and fair, while also providing diverse livelihoods. The solution is not just about adapting to climate change. Scientific analyses show how Climate change adaptation is not the goal, but development., is the best overall.
UNAMID / flickr, CC BY – SA
Despite the fact that there are many assumptions that climate change has caused or been linked to violent conflicts in past times, the summary suggests that no single conflict should ever be attributed to climate changes, natural or anthropogenic. This conclusion is in line with the analyses for DarfurIn 2003, Syria2011
Summary of the summary
The IPCC’s press release on the new report was headlined “Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet”. Its stark opening detailed “dangerous and widespread disruption”. Yet its subtitle, “Taking action now can secure our future,” needs emphasising. This is especially true for violent conflicts and disasters, which, as the summary document states, are not significantly affected by human-caused global climate change.
Perhaps the press release doesn’t mention violence or disasters because they are positive news amid the despair. Ultimately, “taking action now” means applying The science of conflict and disastersPrevention. This saves lives and livelihoods, regardless of the effects of climate change.
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