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Protests, nature protection, and plant-based food: Ten climate and environment predictions for 2022

Protests, nature protection, and plant-based food: Ten climate and environment predictions for 2022

Protests, nature protection and plant-based meat: ten climate and environment predictions for 2022

Covid was supposed the moment the world changed. The world was ready to move towards a slower, more sustainable pace. This was evident by the solidarity shown between neighbours and the enjoyment enjoyed of small pleasures and local parks during Covid’s first lockdown. People appreciated the decreased noise and pollution, and travel ceased.

This vision becomes increasingly blurry as we move to 2022. This year is unlikely to be the year when humanity can get to grips with the nature and climate crises. If there isn’t a truly catastrophic extreme weather event in the West, it is unlikely that progress will be enough to make the necessary changes to keep global temperature rise below 1.5.C is within reach.

With that in mind here are ten scenarios you can expect to see in the next year.

1. Will greenhouse gas emissions finally decline?

The context

Lockdown in 2020 drove primary energy demand down by Nearly 4 PercentThe largest annual percentage drop in carbon dioxide emissions since the Second World War was 5.8%. This is roughly equivalent to removing all EU emissions. This decline was not sustained in 2021. EmissionsChina’s GDP rose slightly in 2020, and is expected to continue growing. 4 per centBy 2021’s end. In 2021, India, the US, and the EU will see sharp increases, even though America’s longer-term trend of steadily declining emissions is continuing. 

The prediction

To achieve net zero by 2050, Emissions must fallEach year, an amount equal to the amount during the 2020 lockdown. The situation isn’t looking good. Researchers are predictingAs countries rush to boost their economies affected by Covid, 2022 could be a new record in global emissions. They are likely to be proven correct due to this push and the lack of systemic changes anywhere in the world.

2. What will happen to the protest movement

The context

Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future marches came to a halt during lockdown in 2020. However, protests picked back up in 2021. Most notably, around Cop26, where daily demonstrations as well as two well attended marches kept the pressure on the conference centre. Climate hunger strikes took place throughout Europe and the USA. US as people’s patience with a lack of action from governments frayed. In the Global South, the task of protecting the environment is more difficult than ever.

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The prediction

Unless the pandemic does not strike in 2022 and we are all kept under lock and key, protests will grow larger, noisier, and more inclusive as people demanding climate action, social justice, and climate change action take to the streets. Cop27 will be held Egypt, a country that has seen protests. Do not expect things to go wellBut the governments and other high level climate negotiators that I have spoken to insist that protests are part Cop and will remain so this November. If policymakers fail take action on the climate challenge, protests could become more radicalized and intrusive, even if governments try shut them down.

3. Will we FinallyHow can we slow the loss of biodiversity?

The context

Even though climate action may be far behind where it should be, the world is changing and governments are generally taking the issue seriously. But biodiversity loss is a different story. The rate of global nature change over the past 50 years is Unprecedented in human history. A Millions of animals and plantsSome species are endangered. None of the biodiversity is threatened. Aichi targetsCop15 was established in 2010. It has been successfully held. Covid stops the execution. As the pandemic continues to drag on, it appears that there are less chances of the next meeting in China taking place in April 2022.

The prediction

The situation is dire, but 2022 may be a turning moment. Biodiversity loss is gaining increasing attention. The success of RewildingSome parts of the world have the reintroductionThe focus should be on tree planting and greater understanding of the conservation of species that have been lost. green spacesSome rays of hope can be found in the lockdown-induced chaos. The Glasgow Climate Pact also included Nature, and the climate agendas and nature agendas will become increasingly intertwined by 2022. This combination will help push nature conservation to the forefront as much for its intrinsic worth as for its importance in food production and, most importantly for climate protection.

4. Will we stop deforestation?

The context

Cop26 was attended by 140 countries, including big rainforest nations like Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. They all agreed to end deforestation. This would be a remarkable shift, considering that humans have been a net forest destroyer for millennia. Globally, the number of forests is approximately ten million hectaresEvery year, a lot of forest is cut down. This is an area that has been cut down for a decade and is about the same size as Portugal.

The prediction

The outcome of the Brazilian elections in Oct 2022 will have a significant impact on global deforestation. A key constituency of President Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate are illegal miners and loggers, land-grabbers and small to medium-scale farmers who care little about climate change and the growing risk of consumer boycotts and Import restrictions of Brazilian products. Bolsonaro will lose the election in December 2021. Luiz Incio Lula Silva, the former president of the leftist party, was comfortably leading the polls. It would still be an extraordinary task to stop deforestation within Brazil by the end the decade. Bolsonaro will remain in power and it won’t matter what the rest of the planet does to reduce deforestation. Research published in November 2021 showed that Amazon deforestation has reached its peak. Highest levelIn over 15 years.

5. How fast will electric cars grow?

The context

The International Energy Agency (IEA). net-zero pathway says more than 60 per cent of passenger car sales globally must be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 for the world to be on track for net zero by 2050. The 2021 explosion in EV sales was a sign of things to come.  DataThey will increase from 4.3 percent of market in 2020 to 11.6% in 2025 to 26.6% in 2031. Cop26, which requires sign-up countries to cease selling fossil fuel-powered vehicles and vans by 2040 and no later than 2035 in the top markets, is a key driver of this trend. It was not all good news. It was far from all good news. ReportThe IEA coldly published the following at the end of December: The number of SUVs on the roads worldwide increased by more that 35 million in the past 12 months, driving up annual carbon dioxide emissions by 120 millions tonnes.

The prediction

In 2022, electric vehicles will continue to grow in popularity and become more common on our roads. If you are looking to purchase a new car, it is a good idea to consider an electric vehicle. Avoid the temptation to spend a lot on a gas-guzzling SUV. An even larger capacity electric charging infrastructure will be available. Although most civil society organizations have supported electrifying personal cars up until now, more attention will be paid to whether the market can be sustained given its dependence on minerals from less developed countries, such as lithium, as it grows. While Covid has been avoided in some areas of the world, people will continue to ride their bikes and walk to work in cities. 

6. Will we see the end to coal?

The context

We have been discussing the end to coal for more years than I can recall. But, ReportThe IEA published a sobering reality-check in December 2021. The rapid economic recovery after the 2020 lockdown in India and China will see global coal-fired electricity production rise 9 per cent to an historic high by 2021. Although the world agreed at Cop26 that coal should be phased out, the process is still difficult.

The prediction

Coal will eventually be outsourced due to market forces and increasing stringent climate goals. But 2022 is not likely to be the year when that happens. Economies are more focused on recovering from Covid through any means possible in the short term, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that China has promised to only start phasing down coal from 2025. 

7. Cop27 will deliver on climate finance

The context

The failure of rich countries to pay $100bn in climate finance promised in 2009 has caused a severe breach in trust between developing and developed countries. Cop26 in Glasgow witnessed a torrent of pledges to fill the gap. However, the official $100bn mark will not reach the horizon until 2023. 

The prediction

Cop27 will be focusing on November’s Cop27. This conference will discuss climate finance and how to move forward with discussions about loss or damage. The summit will be held in Egypt, which should move the discussion forward. It will also give more control to the African nations, who are still mostly in the background in Glasgow. Cop26 was a success because rich nations sank their teeth into their pockets. Despite the financial pain that will be felt by all countries affected by Covid, they will continue to dig deeper in 2022.

8. Heat pumps to replace gas boilers?

The context

“Electrification, electrification, electrification” is the mantra when it comes to decarbonising heating. It is difficult to get gas out of heating systems. While Norway is a leader in Europe, other countries like the UK are struggling to get rid of their gas boilers and the substantial emissions they produce. 

The prediction

In 2022, heat pumps will have a larger share of the market than gas, but gas is not likely to disappear anytime soon. Over 70% of heating in Britain (26 million boilers), uses gas. Many people will choose a boiler that allows hydrogen gas to flow into their home over a heat pump, unless prices drop rapidly or governments decide that 2022 is the right time to invest in net zero policies. Mixing small amounts hydrogen with gas does not have any impact on emissions. Many countries will follow Norway’s and Germany’s lead in 2022, and will help customers switch to heat pumps. The UK, led by Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak at the Treasury, won’t follow suit.

9. Are we going to fly less?

The context

Pandemic lockdowns have been partially successful. global travel industryIn the last couple of years. However, there were small opportunities this year when infection rates dropped and countries opened up. People rushed for loved ones in other countries and boarded planes in search sun and relaxation after a stressful few years.

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The prediction

Covid will continue to be available for some time, as will travel restrictions, testing, and other measures to stop the spread of the pandemic. In 2022, business travel will decline and we will no longer be able to fly as much as before the pandemic. The exception is the super-rich who will continue to use their private planes even in the aftermath. Name of the climate. But Climate change is not threatening the enjoyment of recreational travel, which many people aren’t willing to give up. If the pandemic ceases to be a serious threat to our health and lives, then people will be ready to accept it. laAfter the 1918 flu pandemic, the 1920s saw a renewed interest in adventure, pleasure, and fun. In 2022, investment in technology electric planes for short-haul flights and e-fuels to travel longer distances will increase significantly.

10. Were we going to eat less meat?

The context

The answer seems to be a simple yes for many people living in western Europe. I was raised on a strict meat and two-veg diet in 1980s. I also lived in Paris in a time when ham was considered acceptable food for vegetarians. It is evident that many of my friends and acquaintances today are vegetarians or flexitarians, and that there are so many shops selling plant-based options. This is just one part of the story. Consumption of meatThis trend is set to continue and has never been more in fashion. 

The prediction

In 2022, there will be a continued increase in interest in the impact of our food on the environment and on our health. Globally, meat consumption will increase, but plant-based options, which will create huge business opportunities, will become mainstream. Impossible Foods and other companies will reap the benefits. In 2022, eating meat will not be as frowned upon as smoking in many quarters. However, plants will outperform pork and all other animal products in the next 12 months.

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