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Revolutionary changes in transportation are taking place all around the world. More electric vehicles are on their way, more people are using sharing mobility services like Uber or Lyft, and the rise of telework since the COVID-19 pandemic have changed how people think about commuting.
Transportation is a rising source of global greenhouse gas emission that are driving climate change. In 2019, 23% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were caused by energy.And 29% of all greenhouse gas emission in the U.S.
These emissions could be reduced by systemic changes in the transportation sector. But will they reduce enough emissions?
In a new Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeThe April 4, 2022 report was released by scientists from around the globe who reviewed the most recent research on climate change mitigation efforts. The report concludes that while falling costs for renewable energy have slowed climate change’s growth over the past decade, policy changes have made it more difficult to prevent further emissions growth and to keep global warming under control.
Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC
The transportation chapter which I contributed, homed in on transportation transformations – some just starting and others expanding – that in the most aggressive scenarios could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 80% to 90% of current levels by 2050. This kind of dramatic reduction would require a radical, rapid rethinking on how people travel around the world.
The future of EVs
Since the arrival of the Nissan Leaf, the Nissan Roadster, and the Tesla Roadster on the market just over a decade ago (following the rise in popularity of hybrids), all-electric vehicles have seen a tremendous increase in their popularity.
In 2021, electric passenger vehicles including plug-in hybrids were sold at 6.6 million worldwide. About 9% of all car salesThat was in 2008.
Strong regulatory policies have encouraged electric vehicle production, including California’s Zero Emission Vehicle regulationThe law requires automakers produce a certain amount of zero-emission cars based upon the number of vehicles they sell in California. European Union’s CO2 emissions standardsFor new vehicles China’s New Energy Vehicle policy, all which have helped to push EV adoption to where it is today.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Beyond passenger vehicles, many micro-mobility options – such as autorickshaws, scooters and bikes – as well as buses, have been electrified. As lithium-ion batteries become more affordable, so does the price.These new transportation options will make it more affordable and increase sales of battery-powered vehicles, which have traditionally been powered by fossil fuels.
It is important to remember that electrifying transportation systems is a necessity. How clean the electricity grid is ultimately determines how much greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced. is. China, for example is aiming for 20% of its vehicles will be electricIt will be 2025, however. The electric grid is still heavily dependent on coal.
These vehicles will produce less carbon emissions as they are connected to renewable energy, which is in line with global trends. When electromobility is combined with the power system, there are many promising and emerging co-benefits. The potential for electric vehicles to have their own batteries has been recognized. act as storage devicesThe grid can help to stabilize the intermittency in renewable resources in the power sector.
Other areas of transportation can be more difficult to electrify. Larger and heavier vehicles generally aren’t as conducive to electrification because the size and weight of the batteries needed rapidly becomes untenable.
Ernesto Velázquez/Unsplash, CC BY
Alternative fuels like hydrogen, advanced biofuels, and synthetic fuels are being investigated as alternatives to fossil fuels. Most aren’t economically feasible yet, and substantial advances in the technology are still needed to ensure they are either low- or zero-carbon.
There are other ways to reduce emissions from transportation
New fuel and vehicle technologies are often cited as decarbonization solutions. However, behavioral and other systemic changes are also required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from this sector. These changes are already underway.
Telecommuting:During the COVID-19 pandemic the Explosion in teleworkingVideo conferencing and travel were reduced, as well as the emissions associated with commuting. Although some of that will rebound in the future, telework will likely continue for many economic sectors.
Mobility sharing:Some shared mobility options like scooter and bike sharing programs can get more people off their vehicles.
On-demand services such Uber and Lyft that offer car-sharing can also reduce emissions. These services use high-efficiency vehicles or low-emission vehicles. If their services are more inclined to car pooling, where each driver picks up multiple passengers, they could also reduce emissions. These services are still in a lot of uncertainty. They might also Increase vehicle useAnd, it comes with it. greenhouse gas emissions.
The new policies include the California Clean Miles StandardThese policies are encouraging companies like Uber to use cleaner vehicles, and increasing their passenger loads. It remains to be seen if other regions will follow suit.
Cities that support public transit:Urban planning and design are another systemic change. Transport in urban areas accounts for around 8% global carbon dioxide emission.
Through strategies that avoid urban sprawl and discourage personal cars, efficient city planning and land usage can reduce travel demand. These improvements can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and decrease congestion, noise, and air pollution, while also improving the safety of transportation systems.
These advances can lead to lower emissions.
The speed of transition is a significant factor in the uncertainty about how technological changes and other systemic shifts that affect global warming.
The IPCC’s new report offers several scenarios that could help reduce emissions. The scenarios show that the transportation sector’s carbon intensity would need to fall by approximately 50% by 2050, and by as much as 91% in 2100 if it is combined with a cleaner electricity network to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).
These reductions would require a complete reverse of current trends of increasing emission in the transportation sector. However, recent transportation advances offer many opportunities to meet this challenge.
