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Conflict within the Coalition on climate policy has made it harder for public servants to give frank advice about preparing for worsening weather extremes like floods and fires, according to the sworn testimony of a senior bureaucrat.
These are the key points
- The government withheld several “war-gamed” climate scenarios, claiming that the topic was sensitive.
- Senior bureaucrat says government involvement in climate change fights made it difficult for public servants do their jobs.
- An expert claims the testimony is evidence that “the public service has become highly politicised”.
The comments came in July last year during the Coalition’s legal attempt to maintain secrecy over climate scenarios “war-gamed” by some of the top bureaucrats in the country.
The scenarios under “Project Climate Ready” were created in 2018 to anticipate the major disruptions that climate change would bring. They were done by the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk, a now defunct group.
In 2019, The ABC obtained documents related to the activities of the group.However, details of the scenarios were not made public.
The ABC fought against the decision to withhold documents at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, (AAT), but was unsuccessful.
The ABC will not appeal to the Federal Court’s decision. Instead, the ABC is publishing the revelations made during last year’s hearings.
Preparing for climate change is difficult because of internal conflict
Jo Evans, the deputy secretary of Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, stated that the release of the scenarios was against the public interest in testimony before the AAT.
She stated that the policy area was so “contested” that secrecy was necessary for the public service’s ability to do its job.
She said that the topic of climate policy was so sensitive that even the existence of the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk was for some time sensitive.
Ms Evans stated that the infighting between Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby and Joyce over whether Australia should aim to achieve net-zero emission was an example of how contentious the topic was.
She said that it was difficult for both the government and the public service to “grapple” with such conflict.
She said, “We are very careful exploring a topic here that is difficult to grapple avec for the government and therefore difficult to grapple for the senior public servants involved in it.”
Ms Evans claimed that the public service had to keep confidential the scenarios as part of a deliberative process in order to continue to give fearless advice.
The AAT ruled in favor of Ms Evans and found that the release the documents “may hinder the investigation.” [public service’s]”Ability to develop and move policy proposals.”
‘Appalled:’ Former senior defense official
The Secretaries Group on Climate Risk was told by public servants in 2018 that extreme weather was already “overwhelming”, the country’s ability and capacity to respond to climatic changes. Meeting minutes obtained by ABC.
This was before the Black Summer bushfires in 2019 and 2020, or the various east coast flooding this year.
Cheryl Durrant was the director of preparedness at the Department of Defence in 2018. This was when the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk was operational.
She helped to create the secret scenarios that were used in the group.
“I don’t think there’d be any problem with them being released,” stated Ms Durrant, who is now a member the Climate Council.
She said that while she was not surprised by the testimony at AAT she was “appalled at” the way the public service was placed in.
She stated that “the best tradition of a government service is the ability give free, honest and transparent advices to government.”
“It’s… another piece of evidence that suggests that the public service has become highly politicised and thus unable to do its job of giving frank and fearless advice to government.”
Scenarios of Australia being ‘overwhelmed’ by extreme weather
Joelle Gergis from ANU is a climate scientist. She said it didn’t take much imagination to guess what kinds of scenarios they might have been wargaming.
“We don’t need to use our imaginations to consider this. Dr Gergis pointed out two stark and clear examples of this in the past few years. He was referring to the Black Summer bushfires, and the 2022 floods.
She stated that the conditions that led the Black Summer bushfires were average by 2040, and that 20 years later would be cooler.
“It’s kind of like a frightening glimpse into the future of how we’ll be looking when we talk about increased global warming.”
Dr Gergis expressed sadness at the inability of public servants to address the climate policy’s contested nature.
She said, “It’s deeply concerning. I think that physics doesn’t really care about the political cycle and political infighting.”
The scenarios were kept secret but the documents that were requested by the group show that they “could include modeling a spring with 10 degrees Celsius (Celsius), more than average” and “relates to concurrent extreme weather phenomena, legal liability or health”.
They explained that the exercise would require planning over a period “15 to 20” years.
The group stated that Project Climate Ready should be used to help the government “identify actions, prompt discussion about what decisions are needed to build resilience to climate changes, by whom, and when.”
Expert: Releasing documents is crucial for democracy
The group looked at legal risks that climate changes could pose for the government in addition to direct health risks.
Ms Durrant stated that releasing the documents was crucial for democracy.
“Isn’t that the point and purpose of democracy? That there should be open and honest public discussion about issues relevant to Australia?”
A spokesperson for the Department of Environment stated to the ABC that the Secretaries Group’s work was being carried out by a smaller deputy secretary-led group called the “Disaster and Climate Resistance Reference Group”.
A spokesperson for Morrison government stated that the Coalition’s position on climate changes was “clear with a firm commitment towards net zero by 2050”.
“The Morrison government has worked closely with departments in formulating and implementing strategies,” the spokesperson said.
ABC also reached out to the Department of Agriculture Water and Environment.
