In 1994, Republicans gained a net of 54 House and eight Senate seats. This was a major shift in the country’s politics. To win majorities in 2022, Republicans would need to gain five House seats and one Senate slot in order for them to win.
There are signs that this year’s major wave election for Republicans is imminent. Consider:
* Democratic retirements are through the roof. 29 House Democrats are either retiring or running for another office this fall, 11 more than the Republicans. Many of those Democratic retirements take place in vulnerable districts.
* Democrats are, as McConnell noted, in charge of the White House and both chambers of Congress. If the past is prologue, voters will largely blame them in the future for the problems facing the country.
There is no way to be certain in politics, especially with seven months left before the election. This is especially true in Senate, where races tend not to be as affected by national winds as on the House side.
McConnell is aware that his party can still make mistakes. He said Tuesday, “You cannot nominate somebody who is kind of unacceptable to a larger group of people and still win.” “We had that experience both in 2010 and 2012. McConnell stated that Republican voters had nominated “bizarre individuals” in those elections. They couldn’t win in November.
McConnell stated that he is optimistic that the places that will determine the next majority leader will have fully-elected nominees. “Having a fully elected nominee is crucial for the Senate.”